Real-time tracking of key price levels, Fibonacci retracements, scenario forecasts, and macro context for the ongoing Strait of Hormuz supply crisis.
WTI CL1! · Intraday
Brent · Intraday
5-Day Performance
WTI Crude Oil futures have surged past the $103 mark, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a severe supply shock stemming from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Technical structures indicate a volatile consolidation phase following a massive breakout, with price action oscillating between key Fibonacci retracement levels. The macroeconomic landscape is dominated by an unprecedented supply deficit, with the International Energy Agency projecting a shortfall of 6 million barrels per day through June, setting the stage for continued upward price pressure unless a diplomatic breakthrough occurs.
The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil (CL1!) reveals a dramatic structural shift that began in late January 2026. Following a multi-month consolidation base in the $57–$67 range, price executed a massive impulse wave, peaking near $120 by late February. This blow-off top transitioned into a volatile distribution phase characterized by a series of lower highs, notably the April rally that failed near $115.
Recent price action in May demonstrates a sharp recovery from a deep pullback to the $87 support zone, forming a potential double bottom structure that has propelled the asset back into the $96–$103 range. The defense of the $87 zone, which aligns closely with the 61.8% golden ratio, suggests that buyers remain active on deep pullbacks despite the overarching pattern of lower highs.
Cycle peak (Feb/Mar 2026)
0% Fib
April 2026 lower high; key structural pivot
Upper boundary of current range
23.6% Fib
Immediate pivot; 38.2% Fibonacci
38.2% Fib
May 2026 swing low; golden ratio
61.8% Fib
The initial January breakout was fueled by extreme volume expansion. The subsequent distribution phase has likely seen declining momentum, typical of corrective structures. However, the aggressive defense of the $87 support level and the rapid ascent back above $100 suggests a resurgence of buying volume, likely catalyzed by the latest geopolitical developments. A sustained breakout above $106.55 will require significant volume confirmation to invalidate the prevailing pattern of lower highs.
Major Resistance
Secondary Resistance
Near-Term Resistance
Current Price
Near-Term Support
Major Support
Further US-Iran escalation, direct strikes on Iranian oil facilities, or confirmed critical depletion of accessible onshore inventories.
Geopolitical stalemate continues with no new major attacks, allowing the market to digest the existing supply deficit within the established Fibonacci range.
A sudden, credible announcement of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough guaranteeing the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
12.8 mb/d
Supply Loss
Since Hormuz closure
6.0 mb/d
Supply-Demand Gap
Mar–Jun 2026 (IEA)
900 Mb
Cumulative Deficit
Projected by Sep 2026
11.9 mb/d
OPEC+ Output Drop
From pre-war levels
–420k bpd
IEA Demand Revision
2026 demand growth cut
1.17 mb/d
OPEC Demand Growth
2026 forecast (revised down)
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated by Iran in late February 2026, has removed approximately 10.5 mb/d from global supply. The IEA reports that global oil supply has plummeted by 12.8 mb/d since hostilities began, creating a severe supply-demand gap estimated at 6 mb/d from March through June.
Over the weekend of May 17–18, drone strikes caused a fire near the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE, an attack likely orchestrated by Iran or its regional proxies. Iran has also expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz and is attempting to implement a "Tehran tollbooth model", charging merchant shippers for passage under the threat of violence.
"Commercial oil inventories in the developed world could approach operational stress levels by June."
— JP Morgan (Natasha Kaneva)
"Global onshore inventories of fuels are depleting at record speed. Inventories are the only buffer available today."
— Saudi Aramco CEO (Amin Nasser)
"At some point the market is going to collide and prices are going to shoot up."
— Atlantic Council (Ellen Wald)
WTI Crude Oil remains highly sensitive to the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. The technical structure indicates a market attempting to find equilibrium after a massive supply-driven shock, with price currently trapped between key Fibonacci levels of $98 and $106. However, the macroeconomic reality of a 6 mb/d supply deficit and rapidly depleting global inventories heavily skews the risk to the upside. Unless a diplomatic resolution is achieved to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the structural supply shortage is likely to force prices higher, potentially challenging the $115 resistance level in the near term.